May 20, 2022

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COVID infections will rise to pre-lockdown levels if tier system returns, SAGE warns

COVID infections will rise to pre-lockdown levels if tier system returns, SAGE warns
Returning to a tiered system of coronavirus restrictions next month will cause infections to rise to the levels which prompted England to enter its second lockdown, the government's scientific advisers have warned.In newly-released documents, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the country's coronavirus reproduction rate - or R number - is likely to…

Returning to a tiered system of coronavirus constraints next month will cause infections to rise to the levels which prompted England to enter its second lockdown, the federal government’s scientific advisors have cautioned.

In newly-released documents, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the nation’s coronavirus reproduction rate – or R number – is most likely to fall listed below 1 during the four-week lockdown.

However the professionals said that infections will “return to the very same rate of increase” as prior to national limitations were imposed on 5 November if the nation goes back to its previous three-tier system.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has actually insisted the latest lockdown will end on 2 December however it remains uncertain what limitations will be in location over the Christmas duration.

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In its file, SAGE stated England’s lockdown is “most likely to reduce R to less than 1” and the number of healthcare facility admissions and deaths “would be anticipated to fall until at least the 2nd week of December”.

However it cautioned that the “longer-term outlook” depends upon “policies over the festive duration”.

” If England go back to the same application of the tiering system in place before fifth November, then transmission will go back to the same rate of increase as today,” SAGE stated in the document dated 4 November.

If the R value is above 1 then the COVID-19 epidemic continues to grow, however if it is listed below 1 it reveals the outbreak remains in retreat.

The tier system in England saw areas placed in 3 different tiers classed as “medium”, “high” or “extremely high” depending upon their rate of coronavirus infections.

The “high” tier 2 limitations also required clubs and restaurants to shut at 10 pm but banned families blending inside, with the guideline of six using when people satisfied outdoors.

Under the “very high” tier 3 limitations, no households might mix indoors or outdoors in hospitality places or private gardens and the rule of six used in open public spaces such as parks and beaches.

In its document, SAGE said that initial analysis suggested tier 3 measures in England had a “visible impact on transmission, however it is not yet clear whether they have actually been sufficient to minimize R below 1”.

Following England’s 2nd lockdown, it was revealed on Friday that the UK’s R number has fallen a little to a maximum of 1.2

The figure is now between 1.0 and 1.2 – down from between 1.1 and 1.3 recently.

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Professionals believe the R worth is below one in some places, particularly in parts of Wales and potentially parts of Scotland and the north west of England.

It is hoped that R will drop in more locations next week or the week after, as people stay under lockdown constraints.

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