October 22, 2021

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Election primer (early version): the states and seats to watch

Election primer (early version): the states and seats to watch
Scroll to top Get Access Code. Enter your email address and Crikey will send a Verification Code Enter the Verification Code sent to to confirm your account.The Verification Code will expire in 1 hour. Want some assistance? Contact us on: [email protected] or call the hotline: +61 (03) 8623 9900. Scott Morrison is officially in full-blown…

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Scott Morrison is officially in full-blown election mode. And based on recent polling, he needs to be.

(Image: AAP/Lukas Coch)

It’s very obvious by now that Scott Morrison is in full-blown election mode. Since last week, the Coalition has doubled-down on presenting a binary choice to voters: freedom under the government v a Labor opposition committed to endless lockdowns and border closures. 

The government knows it needs a sharp, cogent message. Ever since half the country went into a lockdown that could’ve been avoided with a functional vaccine rollout, its polling numbers have been shocking. The latest Newspoll has Labor on track for a landslide. And Roy Morgan now puts the opposition up 54.5%-45.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

As we learned in 2019, there’s no such thing as a uniform national swing, and individual seat polling is far less accurate. And Morrison’s freedom message is clearly calculated to play better in locked-down states. Unfortunately for the government, Roy Morgan’s individual state swings also deliver bad news.

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About the Author

Kishor Napier-Raman

Politics Reporter

Kishor is a federal politics reporter for Crikey, based in the Canberra press gallery. He writes news and analysis with a focus on foreign policy, legal affairs and government transparency. Previously, he was a general reporter in Crikey‘s Sydney office, where he started in 2018 while completing an arts/law degree at the University of Sydney.

Kishor Napier-Raman — Politics Reporter

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